St. John’s plays its biggest game in 25 years on Saturday evening.
Not only is it the first time that the Red Storm have been in the Big East Finals since 2000, but a win over Creighton at Madison Square Garden could push the Johnnies up to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The Red Storm will be under heaps of pressure to get the job done, but they’ve answered the bell in plenty of big spots already this season.
St. John’s is a 6.5-point favorite over Creighton on Saturday.
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St. John’s vs. Creighton odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | -6.5 (-110) | -285 | Over 141.5 (-110) |
| Creighton | +6.5 (-110) | +230 | Under 141.5 (-110) |
St. John’s vs. Creighton Prediction
The formula for St. John’s hasn’t changed much this season.
The Red Storm have elite talent leading the way, but it’s their defense that drives the bus.
That was on display Friday night when the Red Storm essentially sucked the life out of Marquette in the second half of a 79-63 victory.
St. John’s ranks 13th in KenPom’s Power Rankings, but the defense grades out as the best in the country.
Creighton checks into the Big East Final ranked 36th overall by KenPom and profiles as a team that does everything well but nothing at an elite level.
The Blue Jays offense sits 35th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings and the defense grades out as the 40th-best unit in the country.
The Blue Jays are solid, but their ceiling isn’t as high as the true heavyweights.
St. John’s vs. Creighton Pick
These two teams split a couple of close battles this season. Creighton won, 57-56, in their first meeting, but the Red Storm got their revenge in a six-point win in New York.
The spread for the second game was 6.5 points, which is where things stand at the time of writing.
And while a big move from that spread would make you wonder if the line is inflated by the Red Storm bandwagon, it hasn’t budged and that feels wrong.
St. John’s has improved as this season has gone on and the Red Storm defense continues to get stingier with each passing half.
St. John’s has home-court advantage, an elite defense, and the best players in this contest.
That’s enough to justify a punt on the Red Storm at -6.5 or better.
The Pick: St. Johns -6.5
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