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The field for the 2025 NCAA Tournament will be set Sunday evening, but bettors might want to beat the rush by scooping up a few futures tickets before the bracket gets finalized.
It’s a bit of a dangerous game to bet an outright winner before we see their draw, but there are potential advantages to scooping up a couple of long shots before the Selection Sunday broadcast gets off the air.
For one, if you think a long shot has sleeper potential, there likely will be a lot of other folks who feel the same way. Some of whom might even be on the Selection Sunday broadcast.
As soon as word gets out about your sleeper, the number will come down and you’ll lose value.
The other reason to bet a team before the bracket gets released is because they may get lucky with their draw or wind up with a higher seed than projected.
The obvious downside is it goes the other way, but that’s why it’s called gambling.
This year’s tournament does seem top heavy, but the general consensus is that things tighten up after Duke (with Cooper Flagg, who is battling a sprained left ankle), Auburn, Houston and Florida.
If we see a couple of the heavyweights go down, there are a host of teams that can take advantage and make a run to the Final Four.
I’ve highlighted my three favorite long shots based on their price:
Texas Tech (40/1, Caesars)
The Red Raiders finished second in the Big 12, have a host of impressive wins on their résumé and are the No. 7 team in KenPom’s rankings.
It’s hard to poke any holes in the Red Raiders’ statistical profile, but a middling stretch to close the regular season is causing them to fly under the radar a bit, even though they’re projected to be a No. 2 seed in the tournament. Getting 40/1 on a team this good feels like a gift.
There are a few reasons why Gonzaga is flying under the radar right now. For one, college basketball fans are used to the Bulldogs disappointing in the tournament.
The Zags have never won the big one, despite being favored to do so on a few occasions.
Additionally, the narrative around Gonzaga this year was that this iteration of the team wasn’t up to the same level as some of Mark Few’s recent rosters.
That might be the case, but they’re still quite good — and the numbers say the Bulldogs are underrated. Gonzaga ranks 341st in the country per KenPom’s Luck Rating.
Gonzaga is projected to be a No. 7 seed in the tournament, but they’re ranked as the seventh-best team according to KenPom and the ninth-best squad per BartTorvik’s model.
Gonzaga is a sleeping giant.
Betting on College Basketball?
Wisconsin (65/1, DraftKings)
The Badgers have a similar profile to Gonzaga.
They are strong at both ends of the court, but they haven’t got the rub of the green. Wisconsin sits 272nd per KenPom’s Luck Rating, so these Badgers might have a much higher ceiling than their record indicates.
The Badgers, who advanced to the Big Ten tournament final, grade out as the 11th-best team in KenPom’s model and they’re 13th overall per BartTorvik, but they entered the Big Ten Tournament ranked 18th by the AP.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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